PFG7

Just noticed that these fall due in April. Pity. Seems that the issue is for only £25m which PF should be able to handle easily. Hopefully, though, there will be a replacement.
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Comments

  • Hello Dandigirl, as you say the issue size was small so maybe in general terms no need for top up at this moment but given their legal bill to battle NSF ( £23m from memory ) just maybe similar to IPF extension. ?
  • sussexmade: hello, interesting point you make re: the NSF costs. Would have thought that they could a new issue away, provided they aren't too greedy, fairly easily. According to the LSE site the 5.125% 2023s are trading around par or a little above. Depending on amount and term, maybe PFG could get a new issue away with something beginning with a 6, maybe even below that if the amount sought is not that big.
  • sp taken a big hit today with the scrapping of the 2019 divi. Now I will be happy to get some cash back. How quickly things change.
  • dandigirl, saw the ords dived but PFG7 marked down just a tad and I can't see any trades today ( Yet ! ). With what appears to be £40m in the kitty think they could repay on time and in their notice there was no mention of maturity of bonds on April 14 th so getting late to issue a new bond/extension of PFG7. Maybe they could pull something out of the hat still but would take an awful lot of effort and time is not on their side with everything else going on and fire fighting on all fronts.
    Anyway think we will know for sure by early next week as they have to give reasonable norice.
  • PFG closed today at 220.3 compared to Monday close on 168.45, so still fair bit up on the week

    This is a recession by proclamation, so don't be surprised by the sharp fall and possible sharp rise back up

    Offer of 99 for PFG7 suggests no default, at worse there might be brief maturity extension just to protect the cash levels in this environment

  • sussexmade: Covid impact statement of last week [20th] makes for good reading. If they weren't intending to repay that would have been the time to announce it. No need to wait until next week IMV.
  • Don't be surprised if they disagree with your view
  • "sure by early next week as they have to give reasonable notice."
    As with most bonds maturing, they just do it, and you find that the money is added to your account one or two days after the maturity date. No announcements are usually made. This issue being small, little point than other to let it mature.

    Been a good investment for the past 10 years - 7% is very good!
  • Yes indeed 7% was good even at the issue time leave alone now. Just wondering with capital markets in flux and all sorts of conditions being set whether or not we may in a month or two see another reasonable coupon on some new ORB issue. ? The bar is not so high and Joe Public starved ( leave aside Alnwick ) of a half decent offer with a half decent coupon ( indecent would be brilliant ! ).
  • sussexmade, With the amount of money printing required by the BOE and other central banks in order to keep Treasury yield's low, I suspect a few investors might be wary of any new longer dated Orb bonds. However some good companies may require urgent cash to repair their balance sheet after this calamity has passed.
  • edited March 28
    Nobody would want to be the first one from the gate and having to cancel issuance due to lack of demand, the market could be frozen for a while

    However, you are probably right in evaluating Joe Public starved, the recovery could be pretty sharp here, not to mention the savings glut from the ageing population

    Without money printing, treasury yields would go even lower, remember govt bonds are great in slow growth slow inflation environment, the way to get rates up is to provide monetary accommodation and then those yields climb up with recovering growth and inflation

    Money Printing is great for asset prices including longer dated ORB bonds, the printed money obviously leaks into everything, and prices goes up, for EVERYTHING

  • Arjungaur,
    As the Prime Minister has indicated, we are not though the worse yet. We are living in a world where it is very difficult to know what is going to happen, however we do know the "Demand" for the supply of services & products is going to be vastly down, which also will be matched eventually by the "Supply". One product which may be in demand is gold, by investors, but however Gold other uses, eg in Jewelry that will be down. Even Switzerland is having problem in the manufacture of gold bullion.
    Nothing is certain and very difficult to predict, as this type of calamity has never happened in recent history (with the exception of Spanish Flu).
    "Joe Public starved"
    Not only from new bond issues, but from food. Already issues are arising in India from migrating workers trying to get back home. Very important that this year's crops are planted, but who is going to plant and then pick the fruits of labour.
    DEFRA needs to organise an Army (like Kitchener's for 1st world war, or Land Girls for 2nd WW11, so that "food produce" continues to be supplied by our supermarkets.
    Lack of migrant farm labourers where they need to be, across world is going to be the next "massive" issue!
    Expect to see less imported fresh food available in the near future.
  • edited March 29
    BoJo unfortunately has got the perfect diversion for his Anti-Europe Brexit agenda. With nobody now paying attention, UK would end up having a very bad divorce with Europe. All because of media and public attention is swept by these loud claims of this and that about the virus by BoJo & Co. It's very unfortunate for UK. And soon UK itself would be under threat with Scotland wanting to leave.

    i'll still say with these growth rates and recovery rates, it's safe to say crisis over, i'm just waiting for next crisis to come along for us to fixate on, it was the same story with Soleimani where everyone was worried about that but now everyone has forgotten about it once some new shiny toy came along for our ego -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data/Mainland_China_medical_cases_chart
  • edited March 29
    We are always living in a world where it is impossible to know what is going to happen, Remember, future is going to be determined by billions of people making economic and everyday decisions based on their biases, not to mention all the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) of the wider known and unknown universe

    we do not know that the "Demand" or the "Supply" for the supply of services & products is going to be vastly down, given the Joe Public starved, the recovery could be pretty sharp here if people stop panicking and start understanding coronavirus is just another pandemic like common flu, On an average, US every year has got 70million Flu cases, 700k of those get hospitalised and 35k people actually die, this coronavirus is nothing compared to it except the mass hysteria and sensationalism that media and politicians are fuelling to public in this running 24x7 news cycle

    With low interest rates and underinvestment in it, Gold could do well for a while coming out of the recession, similar to 175% run up in 2009-11

    Nothin is ever certain and it is always impossible to predict, given the reasons i explained above about the future human decisions and VUCA

    This is not an unprecedented calamity, the rate of change and panic has been bit fast though -

  • shaunm and Arjungaur, I have noticed already that food prices are easing upwards and there are nowhere near the same volumes of special deals/ 2:1's etc. Food inflation has already started and even with petrol/diesel retail prices probably dropping by another 10-15 % soon which normally would be helpful prices look to be heading north. In Europe fresh veg/fruit and for further processing etc needs to be planted out very soon now and without the labour in the fields the acreage needed will be almost certainly well down.
    Here in West Sussex and just over the border in to Kent farms have already started the push to enrol locally young people/students/anyone to help with field work helping plantings/pruning and later on harvest. Given this is essential work currently it will be possible. So if you fancy Strawberry picking at about £10.00 per hour you know what to do ( basic accommodation available ! ). I'm up for the grape harvest later in the year and a little sampling of finished product as we go. Cheers all.
    Seriously I need a bond paying 5.5% upwards for 4 up to 7 years-to live not buy wine !.
  • edited March 29
    There is plenty of food and there is plenty of toilet paper, in fact with the social distancing, a trip to Tesco now feels like a trip to Selfridges, people are so well behaved, maintaining social distance rather than previously where people would be breathing down your neck, not to mention all the bumping and physical pushing mindlessly, i'll be so grateful if people learn some social manners coming out of this social distancing phenomena

    Of course migrating workers are trying to get back home, i kept trying to explain to you why lockdowns are a terrible idea - https://fii.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/4879/#Comment_4879

    Once the lockdown is lifted, and the politicians and media stop fuelling the mass hysteria and sensationalism in this running 24x7 news cycle, those migrating workers are happily going to plant and then pick the fruits of labour, Remember 40% of people in US have less than $400 in savings, this unnecessary panic is a disaster for them

    Continuous food supply to supermarkets is essential to alleviating this panic, so Fiscal Stimulus for that would be much better than the hysteria BoJo has got feeding the UK for his Brexit distraction

    Lack of migrant farm labourers where they need to be across world is going to be the next massive issue only as long as you keep trying to create panic to benefit your short positions

    Nobody cares if the fresh food is imported or not, as long as there is some for everyone, as Thatcher would say, never underestimate the common sense of the British Public

  • edited March 29
    There are supply disruptions coupled with higher food demand from hoarding, so prices would ease upwards, thats how the economic machine works

    There is no need for special deals/2:1 unless the food is 'expiring', though general hysteria has lead to people not even buying 75% discounted items after 8pm at Tesco, fine by me, i'll have some of that 75% discount because, like i said, nobody can really predict when the food would expire, haha

    Temporary inflation spike is not a problem, because, you guessed it right, it is temporary in nature

    BoJo hasn't made a complete mess, he allows people to go outside for work (but only if you cannot work from home), so labour in the fields would be okay - https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

    Tesco and Aldi are also looking to enrol locally young people/students/anyone to help with shelf work. So if you fancy Strawberry stocking at about £10.90 per hour you know what to do (10 hours a week for the next month). I'm up for the grape stocking later in the year and a little sampling of finished product as we go. Cheers all.

    Seriously we need to ease this panic and hysteria - to thrive and not just survive!

    If you buy some diversified set of global businesses with good balance sheet, you should easily generate 50-60% over the coming decade, there are still some great bargains out there, S&P500 has got 6%+ earnings yield combined with high likelihood of earnings and multiples growth over the coming decade
  • Love all the comments on here and can see all sides. Now should I dig up the lawn to make a veggie patch .
  • Yes please Colin-dig for Britain ! And if you find a new yet unmentioned bond with a good coupon/price do let us know.
  • edited March 30
    I am sure there are some sides both me and shaunm have missed because we end up concentrating too much on each other's view point, haha

    Pls don't dig up the lawn to make a veggie patch, your neighbours would get alarmed and start doing the same to their lawn, thus fuelling the unnecessary panic, just mow your lawn as regular and go about your day in as normal fashion as you can, i'm just waiting for next crisis to come along for us to fixate on, impossible to predict as I have explained above, if universe can reroute some small asteroid our way, that be great

    I found your bond, it's called S&P500, a good coupon and a great price -

  • sussexmade, The idea of fruit picking this summer, could appeal to many housebound persons, in particular those who are retired and have a campervan sitting idle in the driveway. Any excuse to position my camper (with kayak / canoe) on a green field next to possibly a waterway would be lovely at the height of summer. Know of any farms requiring temporary labour close to a river?
  • shaunm-not specifically but I will have a quick look around. In my immediate area it's mostly vineyards running east to west along the South Downs and a bit more inland into Mid Sussex and Kent. Just over the border in to Kent around Tonbridge, Paddock Wood area is the biggest acreage for soft fruit and stone fruit and veg and salad leaves and there is mixed plantings both covered and uncovered. There are a number of reservoirs and lakes in the vacinity that may suit you and most large farms offer accommodation ( albeit in shared caravans/huts ) and a simple meal plan.
    There is a large agency that deals with a lot of jobs in this arena, I just have to dig out the detail. Give me a day or two and I will reply then.
  • edited March 30
    https://tinyurl.com/vmzhdeb

    Does BoJo now allow the less well-off Europeans to come steal these precious fruit picking British jobs
  • shaunm-found the agency : [email protected] which includes 2 other agencies being Concordia and Fruitfull.
    One farm I do know being quite close and is in a beautiful part of the world is Salmans, Penshurst, kent. It's near Bough Beech Reservoir and River Medway for possible waterborne activities ( Bough beech is a bird sanctuary too ). Penshurst is stunningly historic and attractive and has a few excellent pubs too and they out in sticks ( just a mile or so ) so not too touristy. It's part of clockhousefarm.co.uk at Coxheath near Maidstone so not sure if you can be specific to the place of work as they have 5 sites/farms in Kent. Anyway they farm all soft fruit and inc cherries and greengage and start the season in May through to December ( packing late on I guess).
    Hope this is helpful and I will try and think of more specific places.Vineyards close by might need labour earlier than harvest so that may be a possibility- I have my local one just a mile away which is close to The Ashdown Forest and Weir Wood Reservoir. There are 3 others all within 5 miles or so.
  • edited March 30
    I mean Jesus Christ, We are talking about a hot summer of hard labour out in the farms for an old guy, he is not going to Bahamas for a Beach Holiday

    But on the second thoughts, the sooner we pack off this old fella to a vineyard, the sooner we can calm the public panic here and get back to some normal sense of life, Sussexmate you are doing uk a big favour here
  • Our daughter, early 50s, has signed on. She doesn't need the money but would like to contribute so that crops do not perish for want of picking. She lives in N Surrey. Well done to anyone who volunteers to help to prevent a food crisis later in the year.
  • dandigirl, well done to your daughter and she shouldn't have too much of a problem finding picking work within 10 miles or so from where she lives. My son lives in deepest Kent ( funnily enough he works for Apple ! ) and will also try and help out as and when he can, full time work permitting.
    Good luck all in your endeavours.
  • ah, you are in your 70s, well, respect to you sir, i obviously forget that i am the kid amongst all you fine people's company : )
  • arjungaur, so you're only 69 then! ?
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