ETF which inverses (shorts) the rise of 10 Year Gilt yields?

Does anybody know of a ETF which inverses (shorts) the rise of 10 Year Gilt yields?
Gut feeling that Government Treasury yields may rise

Comments

  • edited March 17
    Yields would rise in case of improving inflation and growth outlook, the better way to speculate on that would be, yes, stocks. More liquid and more readily accessible.

    https://www.etfstrategy.com/inverse-short-bond-etfs-gilts-treasury-bonds-overvalued-say-cfa-uk-members/
    https://www.etfstrategy.com/wisdomtree-launches-three-inverse-government-bond-etps-95487/
    https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/ETPs/company-summary/IE00BF4TW560IEGBXETCS.html?lang=en

    Or you can just copy my portfolio directly at no additional fees, diversified, equal weighted, all large cap > 150bn : )
    And 20% discount, haha - https://www.etoro.com/people/arjungaur/portfolio
  • Arjungaur, thank you, very useful information
  • The problem is getting a good buy price on ETFs at the moment. If this strategy is looking likely to be profitable then it could be baked into the price
  • Frugal, I agree.
    With the falling bond pricing (very unexpected by the % fall), one wonders, it is due to possible default or from higher future inflation and/or Gilt Yield (10yrs) expectations? Some of the price reductions just don't make much sense, in particular the PIBS (which I'm still holding).

    Been in & now exited XUKS - XTRACKERS X FTSE100 SHORT DAILY SWAP
    This was relatively profitable (started from 2nd Feb)

    Currently in XSPS - XTRACKERS X S&P500 INVERSE DAILY SWAP
    Been in for a few days, I thinks the USA is behind Europe, and with no National Health Care like the UK NHS, I think the S&P500 has much further to fall

    The above two should be used for short duration only, and as per below

    Added today as I think 10 Year Gilt / Treasury Yields will continue to rise
    3GIS - WISDOMTREE MULTI ASSET ISSUER PLC WISDOMTREE GILTS 10Y 3X DAILY SHORT
    3TYS -WISDOMTREE MULTI ASSET ISSUER PLC WISDOMTREE US TREASURIES 10Y 3X DAILY SH
    DSUS -MULTI UNITS FRANCE LYX ETF 10Y US T DAILY SHORT ACC3
    Not sure about the DSUS, as it is in Dollars, however I was able to get a higher qty.


    Other possibilities
    3SDE WISDOMTREE MULTI ASSET ISSUER PLC WISDOMTREE DAX 30 3X DAILY SHORT (£)

    Note the above are high risk investment securities, thus maximum 5% of portfolio

    Been a terrible 3 days for Fixed Interest Securities, including myself.
    I feel sorry for those who may have lost nearly half of their pension, not nice this virus

    Any other suggestions, just making temporary use of any spare cash, before I hope to enter at the bottom of the market (perhaps 6 to 9 months).
  • edited March 18
    Allright, so the way markets operate is that rates/bonds are very sensitive to real money flows, so they lead the financial markets, what has happened there is a massive sell-off in the past week, 10Y US rates bottomed out at 36 bps last week and now they are back up to 1.19%, this is by far the strongest leading indicator that i can see in the markets that we are close to bottom in stocks

    I would also plead u folks to not sell, i repeat, pls do not sell at these distressed levels, if you have spare cash, and this is important, spare cash only, pls pick up some bargains in the markets, i'll still say with these growth rates and recovery rates, it's safe to say crisis over, i'm just waiting for next crisis to come along for us to fixate on, it was the same story with Soleimani where everyone was worried about that but now everyone has forgotten about it once some new shiny toy came along for our ego -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data/Mainland_China_medical_cases_chart
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data

    And of course there is a counter argument -

  • edited March 18
    Private bonds are also now pricing a default event - https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/retail-bonds/company-summary/XS1575974933GBGBPUKCP.html?lang=en

    These prices are completely unrelated to govt bond yields as i have tried explaining in the past -
    https://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/forum.html#/discussion/comment/4836

    But these will recover once stocks start rallying and when the time comes, they are going to rally very hard, we are at very distressed levels and there is a lot of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus piling in an otherwise decent economy facing a very temporary blip, and my money is still at where my mouth is - https://www.etoro.com/people/arjungaur/portfolio

  • Argungaur,
    Glad you think that we are getting close to the "bottom in stocks"
    Hoping that the American market is slightly behind us in the falling stock market, thus
    XSPS may have some way to go before reaching bottom of the S & P.
    With all the money the Governments are handling out, who at the end of the day will be picking up the tab? Perhaps part Government, part businesses, part you & I ??
  • Ps, We are in war, wars are not won over-night
    Expect "distressed levels" for several months to come,
    Locking down London and New York is still to come, but only a few days away
  • edited March 18
    As for all these short term positions in shorting govt bonds and shorting stocks, there is a cheaper way through OTC derivatives rather than ETFs, pls remember to put a reasonable stop loss, let your profits run rather that putting a profit target and pls remember, trend is your friend, do not go against the trend under any circumstance -

    https://www.lcg.com/uk/

    If you have enough portfolio size/professional experience, you can get professional account for low margin outlays and more account flexibility with a UK entity, or you can even go with their offshore entity like the one in Bahamas -

    https://www.lcg.com/uk/lcg-group/compare-our-offering/
  • edited March 18
    I have no idea whether we are close to bottom in stocks or not, and because i don't, nobody else does either, future price action is going to be determined by billions of people making economic and everyday decisions based on their biases, so i am looking at something more reliable as a leading indicator, US govt bonds, they are very efficient in their pricing with professional participants, stocks though are very much sentiment driven and often at the whims of amateur mood swings - https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

    The 10Y inflation expectations at 62bps is showing we would need more in terms of fiscal and monetary support, but last weeks price action in yields backup suggest the 10Y real growth expectations of 57bps is not really pointing towards a depression decade, thus hopefully close to the end of overshoot for stocks, and maybe they soon start following the trajectory up like the 10Y US Yields
  • edited March 18
    S&P500 has done well compared to FTSE100 purely because of the constituents, I can't seem to get excited about even one in FTSE, but there are plenty in S&P which are really great global businesses

    Let's not worry about picking up the tab at this stage, there is a burning plane we are riding right now, oh my god, that needs to land safely first and then we can do some damage assessment later

    Lock downs would be a mistake, it would lead to unnecessary panic and same problem with the wuhan lock down, when china shut down wuhan, they told people, u know 12 hours from now, we are going to shut down wuhan, well what happened, 5 million people left wuhan, and 5 million people dispersed around China and 5 million people dispersed around the Globe, and it feeded the virus

    We are not in a war, this is just a temporary setback, i myself had high fever and soar throat couple of weeks ago, rough week, called NHS 111, they advised symptoms were too mild, self-quarantine, now a week later i can't even remember the pain, leave alone knowing whether it was regular flu or bloody coronavirus, who cares, it's time to get back to building a beautiful world, for u and me : )
  • Arjungaur, The Chinese had something to give us, their knowledge. They gave us in the West, time to implement more drastic measures and to prepare for the worse, I'm afraid we squandered this period of 8 weeks. Lock downs will come, as the hospitals overflow with patients and as the health system buckles.
    This is a WAR, far worse than 1940-45, the enemy cannot be seen, and can pop up from no where.
    As you say, we are on a burning plane, everybody has taken fright, how will this end up. Can we get re-infected? Will a vaccine work if it mutates? Too many unknowns
    In the west, we are still in the very early stages of this terrible pandemic
    It won't disappear overnight, next week, next month, nor this season!

    Therefore no temporary set back, many great businesses and people are going to struggle

    ps, My wife, a midwife, will be working tonight in a maternity ward, to cover for a midwife who got beaten up by a patient (mental health issues) last night!
  • edited March 19
    Yes, all these Trump, BoJo and all these Europeans should invite our Chinese partners to come and help manage this outbreak, you just have to look at their numbers to admire how good a job they and even South Koreans and Japanese did, there is no shame in learning from our fellow human beings from the other side of world -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data

    We didn't squander 8 weeks, we just underestimated the evolution of this outbreak and how media and some politicians would create unnecessary panic, i mean this is a perfect diversion for BoJo to push forward with his anti-european agenda without anybody now noticing
  • edited March 19
    The enemy can be seen, i saw it and I called NHS and now I am fine, there is no reason to panic

    It can pop from fellow human beings, there is no magic there, just follow simple medical precautions and u'll be fine

    If i get re-infected, i'll call NHS again, take medical precautions and the chance of fatality are pretty low - https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic&direction=prev&oldid=946313751#/media/File:Illustration_of_SARS-COV-2_Case_Fatality_Rate_200228_01-1.png

    We can make new vaccine if it mutates, there are always unknowns, panicking decreases our ability to deal with them, this pandemic would go away soon just like for the Chinese and the previous instances of mers, ebola and sars

    This is just a temporary set back, many great businesses and people are going to have to adapt and be creative in their response

    Stop creating panic, otherwise there would be more patients with mental health issues, and god forbid one of those might beat up your wife, just sit back, relax and enjoy the humanity come together and deal with this latest problem : )
  • The Financial Markets, reducing interest rates will not work.
    The Government is required to make immediate action on the ground
    Complete lock down is now required, like France & Spain - Any delay will make the UK worse than Italy.
    The panic has been with us for a few days now if you hadn't notice

    Review what Singapore has done
  • edited March 19
    Monetary Stimulus like Reducing interest rates would work because it allows entrepreneurs like us to allocate capital to great ideas with very low opportunity cost

    The Govt should most definitely do fiscal stimulus, they should mail all of us 1000 bucks each so that we all can go buy free groceries for next few months

    Complete lockdown would be a mistake as i explained here - https://fii.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/4879/#Comment_4879

    The panic can go away today if we all just take few deep breaths and relax

    What exactly did Singapore do - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore
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